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Who Holds the Royal Flush Hand?
The leader who can choke the global economy's supply chain is not Donald Trump. It's rather Xi Jinping, the President of the People's...

Fred Dionne
2 days ago5 min read


Bulls Remain in Control
The stock market leaves value investors in the dust, once more. In this parabolic phase, momentum is the king of the hill. What's next...

Fred Dionne
Aug 121 min read


The Weakness and Strength of Technical Analysis
I have not always been a big fan of technical analysis. I couldn’t make any sense of why these trendlines could predict support or a...

Fred Dionne
Jul 214 min read


The New Big Bang Experiment
​​xAI has launched two versions of its latest model, namely Grok 4 and Grok 4 Heavy. According to Artificial Analysis, Grok-4 is now the...

Fred Dionne
Jul 131 min read


Can Short-Term Strategy Diversification Improve Market Performance?
In this whitepaper, AQR Capital, a quantitative trading firm, highlights why adding short-term momentum strategies to longer term...

Fred Dionne
Jun 101 min read


The Progress Entrapment
Civilizational philosophy, or the philosophy of civilization, explores the nature, development, and decline of civilizations At one point...

Fred Dionne
May 172 min read


The Flawed Aspects of the Traditional Portfolio Structure of Family Offices
Here is an example of a traditional portfolio structure for family offices (Source: UBS). The first major issue with this structure is...

Fred Dionne
May 52 min read


Gathering Technical Clues to Determine the Direction of Markets
One of my job as a trader is to constantly gather clues to make sense of market gyrations. And then, but only then, to trigger entries...

Fred Dionne
Apr 143 min read


Extreme volatility leads to contraction of volatility
The President of the United States wearing a trader's shirt from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ! With a single tweet the President of...

Fred Dionne
Apr 101 min read


Active Management is About to Outperform Passive (again)
Active and Passive outperformance trends are cyclical | Rolling 3-year periods | Source: Hartford FundsSource + Market Sentiment.

Fred Dionne
Mar 311 min read


The Federal Reserve is Cornered
Unless you live on a remote Greek island, you will have noticed that the U.S. is slowly but surely transitioning from a market economy to...

Fred Dionne
Mar 242 min read


Everything you need to know about the Trump Tariffs (and generational change in the international trade and financial systems).
Stephen Miran, Trump's nominee to lead the Council of Economic Advisers, has written a very important essay on the remodeling of the...

Fred Dionne
Feb 149 min read


The Problem with Selective Datasets
The above chart shows annualized forward returns of the SP500 since 1993. It shows that the worst you could have done as a passive...

Fred Dionne
Oct 23, 20241 min read


A Simple System Demonstrates Why Active Management Beats Passive
As previously referenced, a 5-minute ORB strategy is a strategy that allows the trader to bet on a breakout from the opening range during...

Fred Dionne
Oct 16, 20242 min read


The Banana Trade
This is a great post by Macro Ops on the real driving force behind the US Equity Markets. Hint: it's nothing else than Supply and Demand....

Fred Dionne
Sep 30, 20241 min read


The Next Asymmetric Trade in FX?
We like SHORT SWISS FRANC across the board. We have high confidence that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will intervene in the FX market...

Fred Dionne
Aug 8, 20241 min read


The Critical Regime Change: Our Roadmap
UPDATE on March 17, 2025 The Trump administration has surprised market participants with swift and disruptive actions that aim to...

Fred Dionne
Jul 26, 20242 min read


July 22 '24 Market Update
My unfiltered, very high level note this morning pre-open to those who give a S*: 1. Technicals: Tape remains VERY bullish on higher...

Fred Dionne
Jul 22, 20242 min read


The Analogy between F1 and Portfolio Management
There are two core factors that differentiate high performance racers (managers) from average racers (managers). Simply put: The guy with...

Fred Dionne
Jul 17, 20241 min read


The Inevitable Political Economy Regime and Great Wealth Transfer
Financial repression is a very subtle, political tool implemented through the executive branch of the government to transfer wealth from...

Fred Dionne
Apr 8, 20241 min read
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