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Gathering Technical Clues to Determine the Direction of Markets
One of my job as a trader is to constantly gather clues to make sense of market gyrations. And then, but only then, to trigger entries...

Fred Dionne
Apr 143 min read


Extreme volatility leads to contraction of volatility
The President of the United States wearing a trader's shirt from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ! With a single tweet the President of...

Fred Dionne
Apr 101 min read


Active Management is About to Outperform Passive (again)
Active and Passive outperformance trends are cyclical | Rolling 3-year periods | Source: Hartford FundsSource + Market Sentiment.

Fred Dionne
Mar 311 min read


The Federal Reserve is Cornered
Unless you live on a remote Greek island, you will have noticed that the U.S. is slowly but surely transitioning from a market economy to...

Fred Dionne
Mar 242 min read


Everything you need to know about the Trump Tariffs (and generational change in the international trade and financial systems).
Stephen Miran, Trump's nominee to lead the Council of Economic Advisers, has written a very important essay on the remodeling of the...

Fred Dionne
Feb 149 min read


The Problem with Selective Datasets
The above chart shows annualized forward returns of the SP500 since 1993. It shows that the worst you could have done as a passive...

Fred Dionne
Oct 23, 20241 min read


A Simple System Demonstrates Why Active Management Beats Passive
As previously referenced, a 5-minute ORB strategy is a strategy that allows the trader to bet on a breakout from the opening range during...

Fred Dionne
Oct 16, 20242 min read


The Banana Trade
This is a great post by Macro Ops on the real driving force behind the US Equity Markets. Hint: it's nothing else than Supply and Demand....

Fred Dionne
Sep 30, 20241 min read


The Next Asymmetric Trade in FX?
We like SHORT SWISS FRANC across the board. We have high confidence that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will intervene in the FX market...

Fred Dionne
Aug 8, 20241 min read


The Critical Regime Change: Our Roadmap
UPDATE on March 17, 2025 The Trump administration has surprised market participants with swift and disruptive actions that aim to...

Fred Dionne
Jul 26, 20242 min read


July 22 '24 Market Update
My unfiltered, very high level note this morning pre-open to those who give a S*: 1. Technicals: Tape remains VERY bullish on higher...

Fred Dionne
Jul 22, 20242 min read


The Analogy between F1 and Portfolio Management
There are two core factors that differentiate high performance racers (managers) from average racers (managers). Simply put: The guy with...

Fred Dionne
Jul 17, 20241 min read


The Inevitable Political Economy Regime and Great Wealth Transfer
Financial repression is a very subtle, political tool implemented through the executive branch of the government to transfer wealth from...

Fred Dionne
Apr 8, 20241 min read


Will the Short Volatility Trade Blow up (again)?
Why then did we bother to hold positions that paid out massively in the event of the collapse in these instruments and why in the size...

Fred Dionne
Mar 26, 20241 min read


The China-Taiwan Situation - Supporting Material
This page highlights supporting material to our article China is Preparing for War. Updated on May 10, 2024 The upcoming supply shock...

Fred Dionne
Mar 7, 20246 min read


The New Global Macro Regime according to Blackrock
Blackrock just published their 2024 Global Investment Outlook. Their latest paper highlights their Big 2024 Outlook Calls and core themes...

Fred Dionne
Feb 27, 20241 min read


The Upcoming Blow Off Top in Equities
There are many reasons why we believe this market cycle will end with a blow off top, in particular for the very popular U.S. technology...

Fred Dionne
Jan 9, 20244 min read


Understanding Six Sigma Events
The chart below is one of the most important charts in finance. If you are down 10%, you only need to make 11% to recoup your losses....

Fred Dionne
Nov 13, 20231 min read


The Chip War and the New World Order
This article is a high level overview of our market research. It will be updated from time to time. The historical task of the complete...

Fred Dionne
Aug 25, 202316 min read


Have Businesses Reached Peak Profit Margins?
Without the consistent expansion of margins, US equities would be 40% lower than they are today. The 2019 paper from Bridgewater argues...

Fred Dionne
Aug 25, 20231 min read
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